2026 sets the record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane
As of today, 2026 holds the record as the latest date without a hurricane forming in the Atlantic. The previous mark belonged to 2002 and 2013, when the first hurricane of each season was classified on September 11. The five named storms so far this year have all failed to reach 74 mph, the minimum sustained wind speed needed for an upgrade to hurricane.
Not only that, today’s National Hurricane Center 7-day tropical weather outlook shows no activity expected over the next week. And Google’s DeepMind AI model — described as state of the art — is showing at most a 20–30% chance of tropical cyclone development by September 26. That would make 2026 one of the weakest hurricane seasons on record.
Prediction markets have moved the same way. On Polymarket, traders now price about a 39% chance of zero Atlantic hurricanes this season and 48% on just one to three. A related contract implies roughly even odds that September ends without a hurricane at all. On Kalshi, “more than four” Atlantic hurricanes is only about 10–13¢, so the implied chance of four or fewer is close to 90%.
The season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy is already noticeably below those of previous years. ACE adds up how strong named storms are and how long they last; a quiet stretch of short-lived tropical storms barely moves the index.
Hurricane counts tell the same story. By this date the 1966–2025 average is already about 3.4 Atlantic hurricanes; 2026 still has none.
Not coincidentally, this season has also had one of the strongest El Niños on record. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific run well above average. That shift rearranges tropical rainfall and strengthens upper-level westerlies over the Atlantic, raising vertical wind shear — the change in wind speed and direction with height that rips apart developing storms. Strong El Niño years tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes even when the ocean itself is warm enough to support them. This year’s event is already at record strength for this point in the calendar, which is the main reason the basin has stayed so hostile to intensification.
None of this means the season is finished. Official Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30, and the satellite era has never gone a full year without at least one hurricane. A late storm can still form, even in a strong El Niño. Watch the live National Hurricane Center outlook and the AIFS and WeatherNext ensembles above, and treat the rest of peak season as open until it is over.